So, it happened. A deal with Iran. As of the writing of this piece, the full details are not yet known. I, therefore, will comment on what we do know.
- “The deal” not only does not prevent Iran from going nuclear, it guarantees and legitimizes it in 15 years (sooner if they cheat). Tom Lehrer wrote a song in the 60s called “Who’s Next.” Referring to China getting the bomb, he wrote, “Don’t worry, they can’t wipe us out for at least 5 years.” A nuclear arms race is virtually assured. If I’m Saudi Arabia, Egypt, or Jordan (Sunni Arab nations), I must have a bomb before Iran does.
- “Trust but verify:” Any deal is useless without verification. This may be the only thing everyone agrees on. I am now taking bets that America’s view and Iran’s view on compliance and the meaning of “unfettered” is different. I’m not sure but I think the word for unfettered in farsi is…. “Hmmm, really?
- “Snap-back:” If Iran does violate the terms, the US has promised “snap-back sanctions.” Hmmm, really? First, It’s almost impossible to re-impose sanctions with international cooperation. Russia and China will almost certainly not comply. Second, Iran is part of the committee that decides whether the terms have been violated. Snap-back, sure.
- Congress: Yes, Congress can nix the deal. There will certainly be a heated debate. My guess is that they will indeed veto the deal. Don’t get too excited. Obama will veto their veto, issue an Executive Order and get a UN Resolution to legitimize the deal. So, the deal will be in effect for at least the next 16 months.
- Israel: BB has already condemned the deal. Obama/Kerry have convinced themselves that what’s good for America is good for Israel. Hmmm, really? Sanction relief puts $100s of billions back in a starving Iranian economy. Besides rescuing them, what do you think the largest sponsor of terrorism will do with all that $? Build roads, schools, hospitals, infrastructure? Does Hamas, Hezbollah, and Assad sound familiar? The only good thing is it reminds Israel that, at least under this president, they are alone.
- A deal or war: Obama/Kerry are using this phrase to convince us the deal is necessary because there are no good alternatives. Hmmm, really? How about this. While we have the upper hand, while sanctions are working, negotiations should have been short and direct. You look Zarif in the eye and say, “It’s expensive to support Hamas, Hezbollah, and Assad. Sanctions are starving your economy. Do you want them tightened or do you want relief? Dismantle. Allow unfettered/anytime/anywhere inspections. Lose the centrifuges you already have. No missiles. No conventionals. Change your behavior. Join the rest of the planet. If not, sanctions will not only be tightened but we will support the joint efforts of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and Israel when they take you out….. You have 72 hours”.
- If I’m wrong about everything, here’s the undeniable truth. By any barometer, a historic deal has just been signed between the most incompetent deal maker on the planet and the largest supporter of global terrorism/largest cheater/liar on the planet. What could go wrong???
