The articles I write are usually inspired by some chance event, a friend, an opinion, well, almost anything I feel needs comment. This time it came from a conversation during dinner last night. I was with a long-time friend who is Jewish, pro-Israel, and a never-Trumper. “He makes my skin crawl.” I usually try to avoid political discussions but I made the mistake of mentioning the Middle East peace deal. I just assumed that it was 1 in the Trump column. Nope. “He had nothing to do with it. It was just the natural evolution of things.” You’ll all be proud. I remained calm. Hmmm, really? I said. I asked him how he could explain the fact that the leaders of the UAE and Bahrain both announced publicly that if it weren’t for Trump the deal would never have happened. Deer in headlights. He swallowed hard and changed the subject. One of the few joys I still have is watching people trying to defend an indefensible position.
I admit I never thought I would live long enough to see peace in the ME. Too many impossible road blocks. The Deal that Nancy calls a “distraction,” that Chuck wants “to see the details,” that CNN calls a “business deal not a peace deal,” screams for an article. The brilliance of this Herculean feat needs to be appreciated.
It actually started with the Iran Deal. Signed on July 14, 2015, it was to be the signature triumph of Obama’s legacy. It was actually the worst deal in the history of deals. We were told it would prevent Iran from becoming nuclear….ever. Actually, it guaranteed a nuclear Iran in 12 years…the sunset clause. (I wrote a complete explanation in 2015. Will forward upon request.) At the time, it elevated Iran to be the major player in the ME. They became, and still are, the largest supporter of state sponsored terrorism. Fortunately, the Iran Deal was not a treaty passed by Congress. It was a signature. We could withdraw with another signature. On May 8, 2018, Trump did exactly that. The Mullahs huffed and puffed “Without the Americans, there is no deal. We are going to speed up our nuclear development!” The world cringed. Trump grinned. He knew what their response would be. He knew he would take heat from the rest of the world. There was no shortage of criticisms. “His arrogance and incompetence has made nuclear war more likely.”
Now, let’s connect the dots. He began to strengthen ties with Israel: approved of moving the capital to Jerusalem, recognized the Golan Heights as Israeli, closed the Palestinian embassy and cut off all aid. Instead of cowering before a pending nuclear Iran, he used it. He cashed in those chips to get Israel to be willing to signa peace deal. He then pointed out to the Gulf Arab States they had 2 choices: spend years and billions, perhaps trillions, of dollars developing their own nuclear weapons orrrrr ally themselves with a neighbor that is already nuclear…..Israel. The price? Recognition, an economic and military partnership, peace. The UAE and Bahrain have already signed on. Oman, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia are next. Qatar, Lebanon, and Yemen will, sooner or later, have to concede.
Unspoken, but certainly a reality, is the fact that the Palestinians are becoming increasingly isolated. Funding for Hamas and Hezbollah will fall almost completely on Iran (who has its own $$ problems). The Palestinians will shout “betrayal by our cousins. This will serve to only heighten our resolve. We will never concede to those racist Israelis. ‘From the river to the sea.’ We will fight to the end.” Blah, blah, blah. When the $$ runs out, they’ll sign. My opinion……Iran too.
Trump saw what nobody else saw. He used the worst international deal ever, a deal that threatened to destabilize the region, as a catalyst for peace. Just brilliant!! Someone needed to say so.
“Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it’s time to pause and reflect.”
Mark Twain
